Uganda National Debt Dashboard
Public debt data sourced from Ministry of Finance Quarterly Debt Statistical Bulletin · Updated June 2025
Total Public Debt Stock — June 2025
UGX 116.2 Trillion
USD 32.3 Billion · 51.3% of GDP
UGX 21T
Annual debt servicing
67%
Of tax revenue goes to debt
UGX 15.6B
Interest accruing TODAY
UGX 2.5M
Per Ugandan citizen
External Debt
USD 15.6B
25.4% of GDP
Domestic Debt
USD 16.7B
26.6% of GDP — rising faster
2025 Budget for Debt
UGX 41T
57% of entire national budget
Debt Growth (2019→2025)
+158%
UGX 45T → UGX 116T
🚨 Crisis Alert: Uganda is spending 67 cents of every tax shilling collected on debt repayments. Only 33 cents remains for health, education, roads, and all other government services. At this rate, debt servicing will consume 75%+ of revenue by 2028 without significant revenue growth.
Debt Composition
Multilateral (IDA, AfDB, IMF)66% · USD 10.3B
Bilateral (China, others)23% · USD 3.45B
Commercial Banks11% · USD 1.8B
Biggest single creditor: International Development Association (IDA/World Bank) — USD 5.3 billion. Largest bilateral: Exim Bank of China — USD 2.3 billion (70.2% of all bilateral debt).
Debt Growth Trajectory
FY 2018/19UGX 45T
FY 2020/21 (COVID peak)UGX 68T
FY 2022/23UGX 88T
FY 2024/25 (Now)UGX 116T
FY 2029/30 (IMF forecast)~UGX 145T
⚠ IMF projects Uganda's national debt to grow by a further USD 8.3 billion between 2024 and 2029.
Who Uganda Owes Money To
Full breakdown of Uganda's creditors — external debt by institution and country
Multilateral Creditors — 66% of External Debt
Bilateral & Commercial Creditors — 34%
Risk Analysis by Creditor Type
| Creditor | Amount | Interest Rate | Currency | Risk | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDA / World Bank | USD 5.3B | 0.75–1.25% | USD | Low | Concessional. Long tenor. Most favourable. |
| African Dev. Fund | USD 1.7B | 0.75% | USD/EUR | Low | Concessional. AfDB Group. |
| IMF | USD 1.5B | 2.2% | SDR | Medium | Comes with conditionality requirements |
| Exim Bank of China | USD 2.3B | 2–3% | USD/CNY | High | Infrastructure loans. Asset-collateralised risk. |
| Standard Bank SA | USD 852M | LIBOR+4% | USD | Very High | Commercial rate. Variable. Currency risk. |
| AFREXIM Bank | USD 341M | 6–7% | USD | Very High | Commercial. Short tenor. Highest cost. |
Debt Repayment Calendar
When Uganda must pay — principal + interest by year. Peak years are the most dangerous for fiscal stability.
🚨 Peak repayment risk: 2026–2028. Multiple major loans mature simultaneously. If Uganda's revenue doesn't grow significantly before this window, it will be forced to refinance at higher commercial rates or cut services sharply.
Annual Debt Service Schedule — Principal + Interest (UGX Trillion)
Upcoming Maturity Alerts
Eurobond — USD 800M
Maturing 2028 · Rate: 7.375%
AFREXIM Tranche B — USD 341M
Balloon payment 2027
China SGCC Power Loan
Karuma Dam — USD 1.4B· Rolling 2026–2034
What Happens If Revenue Doesn't Grow
2026: Refinance at higher commercial rates → debt cost rises 2–3%
2027: IMF emergency programme likely → conditionality (cuts to subsidies, civil service)
2028: Eurobond refinancing at post-2025 rates → USD 800M at potentially 9–10%
Alternative: Revenue grows to 20% of GDP → debt-to-GDP falls to 42% by 2028, crisis averted
What Uganda's Debt Actually Costs
The real impact of debt servicing on public services — per day, per month, per year
Every Single Day
UGX 57.5B
Interest accrues every day on Uganda's debt — whether or not anything is built or produced
Every Hour
UGX 2.4B
Uganda's debt costs the equivalent of building a health centre every single hour
Annual Interest
UGX 6.3T
Interest payments alone — 1.5x the entire health sector budget
What UGX 21T in Annual Debt Servicing Could Have Built
🏥
5×
Uganda's entire health sector budget (UGX 4T/year)
🎓
3.8×
Uganda's entire education budget (UGX 5.5T/year)
🛣
4,200km
Of paved roads at UGX 5B/km
🏫
42,000
Primary school classrooms at UGX 500M each
Debt Trend & 5-Year Forecast
Modelled scenarios: business as usual vs aggressive revenue growth vs IMF intervention
Debt-to-GDP Ratio — Historical + 3 Scenarios
2019 (pre-COVID)38.5%
202253.9%
2025 (now)51.3%
2030 Scenarios:
Scenario A — No intervention (borrow to service debt)~62%
Scenario B — Moderate revenue growth (17% tax-to-GDP)~52%
Scenario C — Tax tech + compliance (20% tax-to-GDP)~42%
✓ Scenario C is achievable. Raising tax-to-GDP from 14% to 20% through EFRIS enforcement, AI anomaly detection, and informal sector capture generates UGX 8.4 trillion additional revenue annually — enough to service debt, reduce borrowing, and cut debt-to-GDP to 42% by 2030.
Impact on Public Services
How debt servicing crowds out investment in Uganda's people
Every shilling spent on debt interest is a shilling that cannot go to a doctor's salary, a school book, or a road. This is not abstract — it is the reason Uganda has a doctor-to-patient ratio of 1:25,000 and a primary school completion rate of 54%.
Budget Allocation — Debt vs Human Services (FY 2024/25)
🔴 Debt ServicingUGX 41T — 57%
🎓 EducationUGX 5.5T — 7.6%
🏥 HealthUGX 4.0T — 5.6%
🛣 Roads & InfrastructureUGX 6.2T — 8.6%
🌾 AgricultureUGX 1.8T — 2.5%
🏛 All other governmentUGX 13.5T — 18.7%
The Revenue Solution
How growing domestic tax revenue is the only sustainable path to debt reduction
✓ Uganda cannot borrow its way out of debt. It cannot cut its way out without causing social collapse. The only sustainable path is growing domestic revenue faster than debt grows. The tools to do this exist — and are being built by the Uganda Fiscal Intelligence Platform.
Step 1 — Capture what exists
Fix EFRIS — make it work for all 1,300+ UMA manufacturers via TaxLink Connect. Activate 4,821 dormant EFRIS accounts. Target top 127 invoice-suppression anomalies. Revenue gain: UGX 400B+/year.
Step 2 — Reach the informal sector
EFRIS Bridge — USSD/WhatsApp for informal traders. Mobile Money withholding tax — 0.3% on transactions above UGX 100K. No filing needed. Revenue gain: UGX 800B–1.5T/year.
Step 3 — Stop trade leakage
Customs Intelligence — AI cross-match import declarations against UN Comtrade prices. Catch gold smuggling and mineral under-invoicing. Revenue gain: UGX 2T+ long-term potential.
Combined Revenue Impact on Debt-to-GDP
Current tax revenueUGX 27.3T/year
+ Fix EFRIS compliance+ UGX 400B
+ EFRIS Bridge (informal sector)+ UGX 800B
+ Mobile Money withholding+ UGX 600B
+ Anomaly detection audits+ UGX 400B
New total revenueUGX 29.5T/year
Debt-to-GDP by 2028~44% (down from 51.3%)